From The Nijasun News Analysis Desk
Governor Charles Soludo’s inauguration of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s 2027 re-election campaign structure in Anambra State may have created an impression of a major political realignment in the South-East, but beneath the impressive gathering lies a fundamental political question.
Can a coalition of political officeholders deliver the votes of a population that remains largely unconvinced about Tinubu’s re-election?
The November 1 event at the International Convention Centre, Awka, brought together representatives of APGA, APC, PDP and the Accord Party.
Governor Soludo described the alliance as a battle for the political future of Nigeria, Ndigbo and Anambra State, insisting that the South-East could no longer afford to remain politically isolated from the centre.
His argument is that political participation, rather than opposition politics, offers Ndigbo a better opportunity to influence national decisions, attract federal infrastructure and secure greater representation in the federal government.
While this argument has some merit, the political circumstances surrounding the inauguration suggest that Soludo may have underestimated the depth of public resistance to Tinubu’s re-election project in Igboland.
The conspicuous absence of several former Governors and other influential political figures from the gathering raises questions about the extent of consultation and the actual strength of the coalition. In a state where political personalities command considerable grassroots influence, the absence of established political heavyweights cannot be dismissed as insignificant.
Former Governors and other influential politicians possess political networks, loyalists and established relationships that extend beyond party structures.
Their participation could have strengthened the credibility of the coalition and demonstrated that the proposed realignment enjoys broader acceptance across Anambra’s political establishment.
Although their absence does not automatically translate into opposition to Tinubu, it exposes the possibility that the coalition is not as comprehensive as its promoters would want the public to believe.
A political alliance involving party chairmen, serving politicians and government officials is not necessarily a popular movement. The real test is whether the ordinary electorate shares the enthusiasm of those who assembled at the ICC.
The Igbo Resistance to Tinubu’s Re-election
The reluctance of a significant section of Ndigbo to support Tinubu’s re-election is rooted in years of accumulated political grievances, perceived marginalisation, economic hardship and dissatisfaction with the federal government’s handling of issues affecting the South-East.
The 2023 presidential election demonstrated the extent of this political alienation. Peter Obi won all five South-East states under the Labour Party, recording an overwhelming victory in a region where the APC struggled to establish a meaningful electoral presence.
In Anambra, Obi secured 584,621 votes against Tinubu’s 5,111. The result was not simply a rejection of the APC; it reflected a powerful regional political movement driven by the desire for political inclusion and the emergence of an alternative leadership.
For many Igbo voters, Obi represented an opportunity for the South-East to produce Nigeria’s president after decades of perceived exclusion from the highest political office.
That political sentiment has not automatically disappeared because some Igbo political leaders have decided to support Tinubu.
The Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket also generated considerable reservations among sections of the predominantly Christian South-East. Many voters interpreted the arrangement as another indication that their religious and political concerns were not receiving adequate consideration.
The continued agitation surrounding Nnamdi Kanu, insecurity, the sit-at-home crisis and the economic consequences of instability in the region have further complicated relations between the South-East and the federal government.
There is also widespread dissatisfaction with the economic consequences of the Tinubu administration’s policies. Rising food prices, inflation, fuel costs, currency depreciation and declining purchasing power have placed enormous pressure on households and businesses.
The South-East, with its strong commercial and manufacturing base, has felt the consequences of these developments. Traders, manufacturers, importers and small-business owners are particularly sensitive to foreign exchange instability, transportation costs and declining consumer purchasing power.
Consequently, asking Ndigbo to support Tinubu for another four years without sufficiently addressing these concerns may prove politically ineffective.
Soludo’s Argument and the Political Contradictions
Soludo’s argument that Ndigbo must abandon permanent opposition politics deserves consideration. No region can effectively pursue its interests by completely isolating itself from the federal political establishment.
However, political participation must not be confused with unconditional political support.
The Governor’s reference to Nnamdi Azikiwe, Alex Ekwueme and Chuba Okadigbo was intended to remind Ndigbo that their political forefathers understood the importance of national alliances.
But those political leaders operated in different historical circumstances. Their political experiences cannot automatically justify the present arrangement or compel contemporary Igbo voters to support a particular presidential candidate.
More importantly, political alignment should be based on clearly defined benefits and mutual commitments.
The expectation that supporting Tinubu today could position Ndigbo for greater political opportunities in 2039 is also questionable. Presidential power rotation is a political convention, not a constitutional guarantee.
Nobody can guarantee that the political circumstances of 2039 will follow the calculations being presented today.
Ndigbo have immediate concerns that require attention. These include federal appointments, infrastructure, security, economic recovery, industrial development and equitable political representation.
It is therefore difficult to persuade a population struggling with present economic and political challenges to make electoral sacrifices based principally on expectations more than a decade into the future.
Can Soludo Deliver Anambra for Tinubu?
Soludo’s political influence in Anambra is undeniable. As Governor and APGA’s leading political figure, he has the capacity to mobilise party structures, influence political discussions and encourage a section of the electorate to reconsider its presidential preferences.
Nonetheless, Anambra voters have historically demonstrated considerable independence in their electoral choices.
The 2023 presidential election provided a clear example of how voters can disregard the preferences of established political officeholders and embrace an alternative political movement.
Soludo must therefore understand that supporting his administration does not automatically translate into supporting Tinubu.
Some APGA members and Soludo supporters may continue to identify with the Governor’s development agenda while maintaining their preference for another presidential candidate.
This presents a major challenge for the coalition. The Governor may successfully bring political leaders together without necessarily transferring their supporters’ presidential votes to Tinubu.
Furthermore, the absence of prominent former Governors and other political heavyweights suggests that the mobilisation effort may still require wider political reconciliation.
Tinubu’s Electoral Prospects in Igboland
The APC should not expect an overwhelming electoral turnaround in the South-East merely because Soludo and some other political leaders have endorsed Tinubu.
Unless the federal government addresses the major grievances of the region and demonstrates tangible improvements in the lives of ordinary people, the level of resistance witnessed in 2023 could remain a significant obstacle.
Anambra may record improved APC performance if Soludo successfully mobilises APGA structures and other coalition partners. Nevertheless, improved performance does not necessarily translate into an outright victory.
The same challenge confronts the APC in Abia, Enugu, Ebonyi and Imo, although the political dynamics differ from state to state.
Peter Obi’s political influence remains a major factor in the region. His supporters, particularly among young people, continue to represent an important electoral constituency that cannot be ignored in any serious assessment of the 2027 presidential contest.
The possibility of a fragmented opposition could benefit Tinubu, but the emergence of a united opposition candidate could make the APC’s task considerably more difficult.
The most likely challenge for Tinubu is that the political endorsements being secured by the coalition may not produce corresponding enthusiasm among ordinary Igbo voters.
The difference between elite political support and grassroots electoral acceptance could once again become evident at the ballot box.
The Real Test of Soludo’s Political Gamble
Soludo’s decision to lead Tinubu’s re-election campaign in Anambra is a significant political gamble. It could strengthen his relationship with the federal government and create opportunities for greater cooperation between Awka and Abuja.
However, the Governor must also consider the political consequences of identifying so closely with a federal administration whose popularity remains contested among sections of the electorate.
The absence of prominent political figures, the historical voting pattern of the South-East and the continuing grievances of ordinary Igbo people suggest that the coalition still has considerable work to do.
Tinubu needs more than endorsements from Governors, party chairmen, senators and political appointees. He needs the confidence of ordinary voters.
Ndigbo must also be convinced that their support will translate into meaningful political inclusion rather than another cycle of electoral promises.
Ultimately, the success or failure of Soludo’s coalition will not be determined by the number of political leaders who attended its inauguration or the strength of speeches delivered at the ICC.
It will be determined by the votes cast across the polling units of Anambra and the wider South-East.
A coalition of political heavyweights may win the headlines, but only the electorate can deliver the votes.
